The 2026 housing conversation is starting to sound different. Not “back to normal,” but closer to a market that can actually move. A new National Association of REALTORS® outlook pulls together what leading housing economists are watching this year: mortgage rates, inventory, and affordability. Those three variables will decide whether buyers and sellers re enter the market in meaningful numbers.

In NAR’s new outlook, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun points to improving conditions for home sales as inventory rises and the lock in effect keeps fading. He’s projecting home sales could increase about 14% nationwide in 2026, with home prices growing a modest 2% to 3%. He also notes inventory is running about 20% above this time last year, which gives buyers more options and takes some heat out of the process.

Rates still matter most. NAR senior economist Nadia Evangelou estimates that a one point drop in mortgage rates could expand the pool of households who can qualify by about 5.5 million, which is a meaningful shift in demand if supply keeps up.

Realtor.com® chief economist Danielle Hale adds another encouraging signal: their estimates suggest monthly payments could decline for the first time since 2020, helped by lower rates and slower price growth. She also points to a more balanced market dynamic where some sellers adjust, and some choose to wait.

If you want a clear, data-backed snapshot of what top economists are tracking and what it could mean for buyers and sellers this year, see the NAR article here.